Canada could face another federal election this fall and it all comes down to this vote

Canada is just days away from a contentious budget vote, and if it fails, it could send the country back to the polls for the second time in less than a year.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government faces a make-or-break confidence vote on Monday, and the outcome remains uncertain as opposition parties signal they're prepared to bring down the government.

After surviving two confidence votes last week on budget amendments brought by opposition parties, the Liberals now face the real test: whether Budget 2025 itself can pass the House of Commons.

If it fails, Canadians could be heading into a winter election campaign just seven months after the last one.

READ ALSO: 13 updates from the new federal budget that you might actually care about

Here's everything you need to know about Monday's budget vote and what could happen next.

What happened with Budget 2025?

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled the new federal budget on November 4, revealing a projected deficit of $78.3 billion for 2025-2026. That figure fell far short of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's demand to keep the deficit under $42 billion.

The budget includes increased defence spending, investments in affordable housing and support for workers affected by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

But the massive deficit — significantly higher than the $48.3 billion projected in the Fall Economic Statement and even exceeding the Parliamentary Budget Officer's recent $68.5 billion estimate — immediately drew criticism from opposition parties.

Poilievre has called it "Carney's costly credit card budget," pointing out that it's the biggest deficit in history outside of the pandemic.

The Bloc Québécois also criticized it, posting on X last week, "The Liberals said no to young first-time homebuyers. We'll say the same to their budget."

Even the NDP, which has historically propped up Liberal minority governments, expressed disappointment with a budget that Interim Leader Don Davies says "fails to meet the moment."

Conservative defections are shifting the numbers

The political landscape changed dramatically on budget day, when Nova Scotia Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals. His decision brought the Liberals one seat closer to a majority — still two short, but significantly improving their chances of survival.

With d'Entremont's defection, the current standings in the House are 170 Liberals, 143 Conservatives, 22 Bloc Québécois, seven NDP and one Green.

That means Carney now needs just two opposition votes or four opposition abstentions to pass the federal budget on Monday and avoid triggering a federal election.

The situation shifted again two days later, when Alberta Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux announced his resignation from the House of Commons on November 6.

While it's unclear when his resignation takes effect or whether he'll participate in Monday's vote, Jeneroux abstained from both confidence votes last week, raising questions about how he'll vote — if at all — on Monday.

The Liberals survived two confidence votes — but Monday is different

Last week delivered high political drama as the government faced back-to-back confidence votes on opposition amendments to the budget. Prime Minister Mark Carney made the decision to declare both votes matters of confidence, raising the stakes significantly.

On Thursday, the House voted on a Conservative sub-amendment calling for Budget 2025's rejection. The Liberals survived when the Bloc, NDP and Greens joined them to defeat it. Four Conservatives — including Jeneroux — and one NDP MP abstained.

The next day, MPs voted on a Bloc amendment also rejecting the budget. This time, the Conservatives joined the Liberals to defeat it 306 votes to 30, with the NDP and Greens voting in favour. Five Conservatives abstained from that vote.

However, these victories don't guarantee Monday's outcome. Voting against opposition amendments to reject the budget is very different from actually voting to support the budget itself. Opposition MPs could easily argue they defeated the amendments for procedural reasons while still planning to vote against the main budget motion.

Where do the opposition parties stand?

The Conservative position is clear: they'll vote against the budget. Poilievre has consistently criticized the deficit and called for tax cuts, spending restraint and the elimination of certain taxes. His caucus appears largely united, though last week's departures and abstentions could suggest not everyone is comfortable forcing another election so soon.

The Bloc Québécois also seems unlikely to support the budget after it failed to deliver on their key demands. The party voted to reject the budget through their amendment last Friday and shows no signs of backing down.

The real wildcards are the NDP and Green Party.

The Toronto Star reported earlier this week that sources close to the NDP say the party is preparing for an election. After winning only seven seats in the spring — their worst result in history and well below the 12 seats needed for official party status — a fall election could offer them a chance to gain back some of the seats they lost.

However, NDP MP Jenny Kwan, who abstained from the November 6 vote, has said publicly she won't abstain on Monday, and other NDP members have made similar statements. Meanwhile, Interim Leader Don Davies has indicated that when it comes to how NDP members vote on Monday, the party will "make that decision together."

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May told iPolitics this week she remains undecided on how she'll vote but acknowledged that an election "could absolutely happen."

What happens if the budget fails?

Under Canada's parliamentary system, the federal budget is a matter of "confidence." That means if it doesn't receive support from more than half of voting MPs, the government falls.

Mark Carney would then need to either resign or ask the governor general to dissolve Parliament and call an election.

The last time a Canadian government fell on a budget vote was 1979, when Joe Clark's Conservative minority government was defeated just seven months into its term — remarkably similar timing to Carney's current situation.

If the budget passes, the government continues and Canadians avoid having another election just months after the last one. If it fails, election campaigns could begin within days, meaning Canadians could even be headed back to the polls before Christmas.

With the confidence vote scheduled for Monday, November 17, the Liberals have one last day in the House to convince opposition MPs for support, or at least abstentions.

Monday will reveal whether Budget 2025 — and Mark Carney's government — survive, or whether Canadians will be choosing their next government all over again.

Do you think Budget 2025 will pass?

READ NEXT: 13 updates from the new federal budget that you might actually care about