11K To 300K People Could Die From COVID-19 According To Canada's New Projections

The numbers are in. Canada’s COVID-19 projections are here and 11,000 to 300,000 people could potentially die from the virus across the country. However, public health officials are hopeful that we can still flatten the curve and save lives.

On April 9, Canada released its projections and modelling for the best and worst-case scenarios when it comes to COVID-19 across the country. 

Dr. Theresa Tam, the nation’s Chief Public Health Officer, said during a press conference that "while models are imperfect they allow us to forecast infection and illness rates in the short term."

In the worst-case scenario with no control measures in place, there could be 300,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Canada during this epidemic.

However, with tight limits, there could be about 11,000 fatalities across the country.

"We can't prevent every death but we must prevent every death that we can," Tam said.

The federal government also released models of the impact public health measures would have, showing that 1% to 10% of the population could be infected with strong measures in place.

With weaker controls in place, that rises to 25%-40% and with no control measures, it goes even higher to between 70%-80% of people infected.

Tam said that the modelling shows that we still have an opportunity to control this epidemic.

In the best-case scenario, with 2.5% to 5% of the population getting the virus, there could be between 934,000 and 1,879,000 total cases across the country.

Those numbers could result in between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths. 

Tam also mentioned that even once we've passed the peak of the first wave of this virus and are on a downward trend, it will still be equally important to keep control measures in place.

If that's not done, the chain of transmission will reignite.

"You can't tell whether you've reached the peak until after the peak has been realized," Tam said.

She also noted that the coming weeks are very important in different parts of the country.

The modelling showed that Canada's number of cases is doubling every three to five days which is comparatively positive and the country's epidemic is still in the early stages.

It also showed that this country has a slower increase in the total number of cases relative to other countries around the world.