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Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau Is Leading In Some Polls For The First Time Since The SNC Lavalin Scandal

Polls suggest Justin would remain as PM if the federal election was held today.

With just over 100 days to go until the Canadian federal election in October, some Canadian federal election polls are suggesting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have regained the popular lead, for the first time since the SNC Lavalin Scandal. 

One of the reports, from a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics, suggested that the Liberals could rely on the support of 35 percent of decided and leaning voters, whilst the Conservative Party could expect only 33.2 percent. The poll suggests that the New Democratic Party (NDP) has only one-tenth of a percentage point more than the Greens in third place with 10.4 percent of support.

The Bloc Québécois (BQ) was calculated to have 4.5 percent of voter support, while Maxime Bernier’s right-wing populist People’s Party of Canada would have 4.6 percent of the overall voter percentage.

The poll surveyed 2651 Canadians between June 27-July 2, to get an up-to-date understanding of the minds of Canadian voters as the federal election gets closer. With just over 100 days to go until the election, the poll reports voters are leaning back towards the Liberal Party after other recent polls showed the Conservatives were leading the race, albeit by small margins.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 1.9% and is accurate 19 times out of 20, which means that Trudeau’s minimal lead of only 1.8 percentage points over the Conservatives falls just within the margin of error for the poll, which was conducted by phone.

According to Quito Maggi, the President and CEO of Mainstreet Research, if the election was to be held today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would remain in office, based on his significant leads in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Maggi noted that while the Conservatives have big leads in Alberta and the Prairies, along with a five-point lead in British Columbia, these large leads “make the Conservative vote inefficient,” she said. “The Liberals, on the other hand, have leads in seat-rich areas which gives them the edge if an election were held today,” she concluded.

Similar results were also found by the Nanos weekly tracking poll, that ended on July 5. Their latest federal ballot tracking results found the Liberals to be at 34.6 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 30.4 percent, the NDP at 17.9 percent, the Greens at 8.8 percent, the BQ at 4.9 percent and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1.6 percent.

Further, when poll-takers were asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 47.5 percent would consider voting Liberal, while a lesser 40.1 percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative.

One in three (36.0%) would consider voting NDP, 33.6 percent would consider voting Green, 10.1 percent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 27.5 percent would consider voting for the BQ.

The federal election is scheduled for October 21, which is 103 days away. While these particular polls may be good news for Trudeau, there is still a lot of campaigning until election day and at this point, it's anyone's game.