Ontario's New COVID-19 Model Says The Province Is A "Best-Case Scenario" Right Now

"Community spread ... appears to have peaked."
COVID-19 In Ontario: Community Spread Has Already Peaked, Says Latest Model

At last, some hugely encouraging news in Ontario. The province revealed its refined predictions for the extent of the virus' effects on Monday, April 20. And according to health staff, COVID-19 in Ontario might have already reached its peak.

"The wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked," says the April 20 model.

And, in a press briefing on Monday given by U of T dean of public health Adalsteinn Brown, among others, health staff said the progression of the virus in the province is similar to that of South Korea, seen as something of a best-case scenario.

The latest model says the province is now predicting a total of about 20,000 cases, down from an expected forecast of 80,000, per CBC. The worst-case estimate had warned of up to 300,000 deaths.

"While earlier models predicted a peak in cases in May, public health interventions, including widespread adherence to physical distancing, have accelerated the peak to now," the report continues.

"The sacrifices people are making to stay home and wash their hands are making a difference.

"Projections now show Ontario’s COVID-19 outbreak behaving more like best case."

The report repeatedly credits strict social distancing measures for flattening the rate of community transmission.

"Our public health measures are working," added Ontario Health CEO Matt Anderson at the briefing.

However, while community spread is thought to be largely under control, spread in long-term care homes and similar facilities actually seems to be growing.

This is Ontario's second public model for how the virus will continue to affect the province. Back on April 3, the first official predictions warned the effects of the pandemic could last up to two years.

[rebelmouse-image 25978060 photo_credit="Government of Ontario | Handout" expand=1 original_size="1165x733"]

Back then, it was also suggested that up to 15,000 Ontarians could lose their lives to the illness by the time the pandemic is over.

Earlier on Monday, the province had suffered another new single-day high with 606 more cases confirmed. That jump was also met by an increase of 31 deaths.

These latest statistics mean that in the space of the last seven days, the province's confirmed instances of the virus have increased by nearly 50%.

However, when it comes to the all-important community spread, it seems that the curve is flattening.

All those social distancing measures seem to have been worth it after all.