The country is on the road to recovery, but there's still a ways to go. According to the latest data, Canada's confirmed COVID-19 cases could still be climbing well into May. Over the coming weeks, the number of deaths is also expected to continue to rise.
In an April 28 update, Dr. Theresa Tam and Dr. Howard Njoo shared updated COVID-19 projections. Their estimations showed where the country could be in terms of confirmed cases and deaths by May 5, 2020.
Their projection models showed that as time goes on, Canada could be reaching as high as 66,835 cases, as well as 3,883 deaths in the worst-case scenario.
The lower projection limit puts case and death numbers at 53,191 and 3,277, respectively.
The projections based on both limits sit at about 60,000 cases and 3,500 deaths.
Dr. Tam admitted that due to a number of mitigating factors, including outbreaks in high-risk settings, projections first presented on April 9 underpredicted how many deaths there could be.
"This was because a lower general population case fatality ratio was used in the model that we had at the time," Dr. Tam explained on Tuesday.
"But with a large number of outbreaks occurring in long-term care homes, the actual case fatality rate was higher than the modelling scenario," she continued.
Dr. Tam noted that the models had been adjusted based on this new information, and explained that changes would continue to be made based on real data.
Canada's health officials also shared graphs showing the impact that current guidelines could have on the rate of growth for COVID-19.
The best-case scenario indicates that between 1% and 10% of the population will be diagnosed with the disease, even if stronger epidemic control is kept in place.
This would mean that anywhere between 376,000 and 3,759,000 people could be diagnosed across the country.
Dr. Tam emphasized the need to stay the course on current health restrictions and guidelines in order to gain control over this first epidemic wave.
*This article's cover image is for illustrative purposes only.