The past two months have been rough for the Liberty Party of Canada. So much so that the Conservatives have a growing lead according to the newest polls. In fact, if the election was held today, Andrew Scheer would be the Prime Minister of Canada.
This isn't a huge surprise given the SNC Lavalin Scandal. Back in February, Justin Trudeau was accused of unduly pressuring and interfering with the work of Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former Attorney General of Canada. The allegations, from Wilson-Raybould herself, suggested that the pressure came in regards to the criminal bribery case against SNC Lavalin, an engineering firm that employees 9000 Canadians. Since then, the Liberals have been doing terribly in the polls.
Ethics Committee Hearings in regards to the scandal began on February 21 and un-coincidentally that was one of the last days that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals had a lead in the election polls.
According to CBC's poll tracker, which aggregates public polling data, Andrew Scheer's Conservatives officially took the lead on February 26, getting 35.8% in the polls. The numbers have been fluctuating ever since, but the Conservatives have held their lead and have even grown it slightly to 36.1% to the Liberal's 31.6%.
This is only the second time that the Conservatives have held a significant lead over the Liberals since the 2015 election. Oddly enough, the first time this happened was this time last year, when the Conservatives climbed ahead to 38% on March 5, 2018.
They held that lead for the most part until June of that year, when the Liberal Party began to climb back up, reaching their highest point at 39.6% on September 18, 2018.
If history is any indicator, this means that there is still time for the Liberals to make a similar comeback in the polls as they did this time last year, especially since the next federal election isn't until October 21, 2019.
That being said, if the election were today Andrew Scheer would officially be Canada's next Prime Minister. On top of that, according to CBC's poll tracker, as of this past week, the Conservatives are just a few seats shy of winning a majority government.