This is a grim milestone. COVID-19 deaths in Canada have surpassed the total that was projected to happen by April 16. However, there's still a silver lining when it comes to the total number of cases.

When Canada released its official projections and modelling for how the virus could play out across the country, a short-term prediction was also included.

In that, 500 to 700 deaths were predicted nationwide by April 16.

However, that's not what actually happened.

According to the government of Canada, as of 7:30 p.m. ET on April 15, there have been 1,010 confirmed deaths related to COVID-19.

That's 510 more deaths than the bottom end of the projection and 310 more than the top end.

As of that same time, most deaths have occurred in Quebec with 487, followed by Ontario with 385.

Only those two provinces are in the triple digits when it comes to fatalities.

New Brunswick, P.E.I and all three territories have reported no deaths so far. 

Back when the projections were first announced, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, said that models aren't a crystal ball and can't tell what's actually going to happen.

It's just used to support decision-making.

"We can't prevent every death but we must prevent every death that we can," Tam said.

While the number of fatalities surpassing the projected number might be disheartening, there's still a little bit of good news.

The number of cases was predicted to be between 22,580 and 31,850 cases by April 16.

As of the night before that date, there have been 28,381 total cases and 28,364 confirmed ones in Canada.

So the country is still below the top end of that prediction.

Again, Quebec and Ontario have the most cases with 14,860 and 8,447 respectively.

That's followed by Alberta with 1,996 and B.C. with 1,561.

"We are the authors of our fate," Dr. Tam said.

Other modelling showed that in the worst-case scenario with no control measures in place, there could be 300,000 COVID-19 related deaths in Canada.

However, if strict limits are followed, there could be about 11,000 fatalities.

"We must do everything we can now to remain in that better scenario," Dr. Tam said.

In terms of cases, if between 2.5% and 5% of the population gets infected, there could be between 934,000 and 1,879,000 cases.

Multiple waves of the virus are possible according to public health officials and it'll still be important to keep control measures in place even after we've passed the peak.

Comments are now closed.
Account Settings
Share Feedback
Log Out

Register this device to receive push notifications