CBC's aggregate election polls currently show the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie. Who will win the election is anybody's guess. As the election fast approaches, people are tuned into the polls to predict what will happen on October 21, 2019. According to CBC's poll tracker, a minority government in Canada is a real possibility. If you're wondering how a minority government could come to be and what exactly a minority government looks like, wonder no longer.
CBC's poll tracker takes polling data from every publically available source, such as Nanos, Ipsos, and Angus Reid polls, among others, and averages it out to give Canadians an idea as to who the country is supporting.
Canada's next Prime Minister and government are looking unclear as we get closer to the election. Polls are putting the Liberals and the Conservatives in a deadlock, both parties are hovering around 30% support in poll averages.
"The Conservatives are ahead in western Canada while the Liberals are ahead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have seen their support drop in Quebec as the Bloc [Québécois] rises," according to CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier.
There are 338 ridings in Canada for the federal election, meaning 338 seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs. For a party to form a majority government they need to win at least 170 seats.
According to the CBC's poll tracker, as of October 10, the Liberals are projected to get 139 seats in the election. Though, the number of seats the party gets could range from as low as 94 to as high as 206.
The polls portray the probability of the Liberals winning a majority at only 19% and the probability of the party winning the most seats but not a majority is 35%.
The Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck with the latter projected to win 136 seats on election day. The number of seats the party could win ranges from 91 up to 183.
The probability of the Conservatives winning a majority is lower than the Liberals at only 7%. That said, the Conservative party does have better a probability of winning the most seats, but not a majority.
Projections like this indicate the potential of a minority government. A minority government occurs when no party reaches the number of seats needed to form a majority government.
According to the Canadian Encyclopedia, a minority government "is still able to command the confidence of the House." In a minority government situation, seats are more evenly distributed among the parties. In these cases, there is more of an opportunity for the other parties to block legislation. Though, informal alliances can be made.
Beyond the polls, it is impossible to tell what will come of the 2019 election in Canada. For now, it's a waiting game.
Canadians will have their say on October 21, 2019. As for advanced voting days, October 14, 2019, is the last day to vote early before election day.