We just cannot seem to catch a break. This January has already been colder than average for Florida, and it doesn't seem to be getting better. According to the government's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecast, on Thursday, January 23, a good portion of Florida is in the pathway to be hit with a strong cold front and possibly severe storms in the afternoon into the evening.
The SPC puts the severe weather threat as a marginal 1. Their website says: "There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Florida. Thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Penisula on Thursday with isolated strong to severe wind gusts possible mainly early in the day.
An intense and meridional jet max will approach the East Coast on Thursday with a 100 kt midlevel southerly flow and 850 winds increasing to 60-80 kts ahead of a cold front. Instability will be meager in most areas, with the greatest chance of thunderstorms over Florida. By midday on Thursday, the front will be mostly offshore, ending any thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a vast area of cool, dry air will infiltrate the rest of the nation behind this front, with multiple bouts of high pressure shifting southward out of Canada and into the Plains.
SPC has us in a level 1 marginal threat for severe weather Thursday. Ahead of a strong cold front there could be strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening tomorrow. #flwx #florida pic.twitter.com/5yKXDsZBn6— James Wieland (@SurfnWeatherman) January 23, 2019
Strong low-level wind profiles will exist coincident with showers and storms along a weakening cold front from Tampa to Jacksonville on Thursday. Instability looks to be marginal with MLCAPE generally in the 500-750 J/kg vicinity, and large-scale support will be decreasing with time as the shortwave trough ejects away from the region.
This will also cause low-level winds to quickly veer to westerly, with decreasing storm chances during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out early on Thursday with decreasing severe chances during the afternoon."
In simple terms, a marginal one threat means there will likely be some strong winds passing through with thunderstorms and a slightly higher-than-normal risk of tornados. Hail is not expected.
To find more information on the forecast, click here.