Canada's housing market is shifting into what experts are calling a "reset year" in 2026, after a long period of volatility that pushed housing affordability out of reach for many Canadians.
After years of steep price growth, a recent report on the Canadian real estate market predicts "modest price growth and increased activity" this year on a national level.
The 2026 edition of Royal LePage's Market Survey Forecast shows modest gains in many major regions and even price drops in some of the country's most expensive cities.
That's good news for buyers who have been watching from the sidelines. Lower interest rates and a bit more choice could ease housing affordability pressures, especially for first-time homebuyers.
According to the report, the national aggregate home price is expected to rise by a modest 1% by the end of this year to roughly $823,000. The average detached house in Canada is expected to edge up to approximately $877,000, while condos should actually drop a bit to around $564,000.
But sticker price is only part of the story. With factors like mortgage rates and CMHC insurance in the mix, it can be hard to figure out just what you can actually afford, or what income you need in order to buy a typical home in your city in 2026.
To answer that, we combined Royal LePage's forecast prices with current mortgage conditions and minimum down payment rules to estimate monthly mortgage payments and the minimum income you'd need to keep housing costs within a reasonable share of your earnings.
Our findings show big differences across the country — and serve as a reminder that where you live still matters a ton when it comes to housing affordability.
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How we made our calculations
Our calculations are based on the forecast median price of both condos and single-family detached houses in the 10 major Canadian cities featured in Royal LePage's 2026 Market Survey Forecast.
For each city and home type, we calculated the minimum down payment required based on Canadian regulations (5% on the first $500,000 and 10% on the rest for homes under $1.5 million, or 20% for homes priced above). We then added the required CMHC mortgage insurance, which has a rate of 4% of the remaining loan amount for a down payment between 5 and 10%.
Monthly mortgage payments were then calculated using the Bank of Canada's five-year conventional interest rate, which is currently 6.09%, over a 25-year amortization period.
Finally, we calculated the minimum annual pre-tax household income required to cover that mortgage assuming payments make up no more than 32% of gross income — the lower end of the 32-39% range typically recommended by CMHC and lenders, to leave room for other housing costs like property taxes, heating and condo fees.
Here are the results for 10 major Canadian cities, from coast to coast.
Greater Vancouver
Median house — $1,610,915:
- Minimum down payment: $322,183
- Monthly mortgage payment: $8,374
- Household income required: $314,039
Median condo — $712,853:
- Minimum down payment: $46,285
- Monthly mortgage payment: $4,505
- Household income required: $168,927
Vancouver remains Canada's most expensive housing market, and it's the only region where a detached home exceeds $1.5 million — meaning you'll need a 20% down payment since you won't qualify for CMHC insurance.
Royal LePage expects prices here to fall in 2026, with single-family homes down 5% and condos dropping 3%, as high inventory and cautious buyers keep pressure on the market.
Calgary
Median house — $828,429:
- Minimum down payment: $57,843
- Monthly mortgage payment: $5,208
- Household income required: $195,288
Median condo — $265,832:
- Minimum down payment: $13,292
- Monthly mortgage payment: $1,707
- Household income required: $64,001
Calgary real estate is holding steady with modest price growth forecast for 2026. Detached homes are expected to rise 3%, driven by strong demand and limited redevelopment options in mature neighbourhoods. The condo segment, however, continues to be weighed down by high inventory, with little change from 2025.
Edmonton
Median house — $542,568:
- Minimum down payment: $29,257
- Monthly mortgage payment: $3,469
- Household income required: $130,087
Median condo — $207,454:
- Minimum down payment: $10,373
- Monthly mortgage payment: $1,332
- Household income required: $49,946
Edmonton is still one of the most affordable major markets in Canada, with local buyers driving much of the demand. Prices are expected to rise slightly next year, with detached homes seeing a 4% bump and condos rising just 1%, as the market settles into a more traditional rhythm.
Regina
Median house — $456,038:
- Minimum down payment: $22,802
- Monthly mortgage payment: $2,928
- Household income required: $109,794
Median condo — $230,318:
- Minimum down payment: $11,516
- Monthly mortgage payment: $1,479
- Household income required: $55,451
Regina's housing market is being shaped by tight inventory and healthy demand, with price increases expected across both home types. Detached houses are forecast to rise 4.5%, while condos should see a 2.5% gain. Conditions are expected to remain competitive in 2026.
Winnipeg
Median house — $462,264:
- Minimum down payment: $23,113
- Monthly mortgage payment: $2,968
- Household income required: $111,293
Median condo — $274,720:
- Minimum down payment: $13,736
- Monthly mortgage payment: $1,764
- Household income required: $66,141
When it comes to real estate in Winnipeg, housing prices are on a slow and steady climb. Detached homes are forecast to rise 2%, while condo prices should inch up by 1%. With inventory still tight, modest growth is expected to continue through 2026.
Greater Toronto Area
Median house — $1,382,832:
- Minimum down payment: $113,283
- Monthly mortgage payment: $8,580
- Household income required: $321,739
Median condo — $615,885:
- Minimum down payment: $36,589
- Monthly mortgage payment: $3,915
- Household income required: $146,810
GTA buyers may find some relief in 2026, as the Toronto housing market is projected to dip slightly. Detached homes are expected to fall by 1% and condos by 6.5%, as economic uncertainty and shifts in workplace habits lead many to hold off on major moves.
Ottawa
Median house — $907,488:
- Minimum down payment: $65,749
- Monthly mortgage payment: $5,689
- Household income required: $213,320
Median condo — $408,646:
- Minimum down payment: $20,432
- Monthly mortgage payment: $2,624
- Household income required: $98,384
Ottawa's real estate market is expected to return to a more traditional buying cycle in 2026, with steady demand and low single-digit price growth. Detached homes are forecast to increase 3.5%, and condos by 1%, as buyers regain confidence amid more stable interest rates.
Greater Montreal
Median house — $796,908:
- Minimum down payment: $54,691
- Monthly mortgage payment: $5,016
- Household income required: $188,098
Median condo — $502,558:
- Minimum down payment: $25,256
- Monthly mortgage payment: $3,226
- Household income required: $120,962
Montreal's housing market remains relatively resilient, with a 6% increase expected for detached homes and a 2.5% bump for condos. Suburban areas are especially popular among families looking for affordability and space, according to Royal LePage.
Quebec City
Median house — $536,598:
- Minimum down payment: $28,660
- Monthly mortgage payment: $3,433
- Household income required: $128,726
Median condo — $356,160:
- Minimum down payment: $17,808
- Monthly mortgage payment: $2,287
- Household income required: $85,748
Quebec City is forecast to lead the country in price growth again in 2026, with detached homes up a whopping 14% and condos rising 5%. Demand remains strong, especially in sought-after neighbourhoods like Lebourgneuf and Cap-Rouge.
Halifax
Median house — $628,056:
- Minimum down payment: $37,806
- Monthly mortgage payment: $3,989
- Household income required: $149,586
Median condo — $391,804:
- Minimum down payment: $19,590
- Monthly mortgage payment: $2,515
- Household income required: $94,329
Halifax is on track for another stable year, with prices rising moderately. Detached homes are expected to go up 4%, while condo prices may fall slightly by 2% as buyers adjust to current borrowing conditions.
Keep in mind that these figures are rough and intended to give you a ballpark idea of what income you'd need to afford a typical home in each city in 2026 under current mortgage rates and minimum down payment rules.
If you can put together a larger down payment, secure a better mortgage rate or choose a home on the cheaper side of average, you could improve your affordability significantly. But this snapshot helps show just how much regional differences in the Canada housing market still matter in 2026.
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