Will Canada have a white Christmas in 2024? Here's which cities have the best odds so far
Canada's Christmas weather forecast is always the subject of a lot of buzz — especially for those dreaming of waking up to a snowy backdrop on Christmas morning.
After last year's historically mild winter and disappointing green Christmas for much of the country, Canadians are understandably wondering how high they should let their hopes get this year. But what exactly makes for a white Christmas?
It turns out meteorologists have pretty specific rules when it comes to defining a white Christmas. According to The Weather Network, to officially qualify, there needs to be at least 2 centimetres of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Christmas morning. It doesn't matter if it's freshly fallen or leftover from earlier in the week — as long as there's 2 centimetres of the white stuff sticking around, it counts!
While Canada's weather pretty much guarantees a white Christmas in 2024 for some cities based on historical data, others may have to roll the dice, according to the weather agency. So, what does history say for your part of Canada? Let's break it down region by region.
Northern Canada: Certified white
If you live in one of Canada's three territories, you can rest easy knowing a white Christmas is practically a sure thing. According to The Weather Network, places like Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Iqaluit have a 100% historical chance of snow on December 25. Whether it's freshly fallen or a solid snowpack that's been sticking around for weeks, the north can always be counted on for a festive snowy landscape.
Western Canada: Better ask Santa
For those on the West Coast, dreaming of a white Christmas might remain just that — a dream. According to The Weather Network, Vancouver has only an 11% historical chance of snow on Christmas. The city's milder climate means residents are far more likely to see rain or bare ground instead of a winter wonderland.
For folks in Calgary and Edmonton, however, the odds are much better at 56% and 86%, respectively. So while Vancouverites might be stuck with rain, much of Alberta has a solid shot at a snowy morning.
The Prairies: Winter wonderland
If you're in the Prairies, a white Christmas is nearly guaranteed. Regina and Winnipeg have historical odds of 91% and 98%, respectively, making them some of the snowiest places to spend the holiday.
According to The Weather Network, the Prairies' cold and consistent winter weather makes it one of the best regions in Canada for snow lovers hoping for a picture-perfect Christmas morning.
Ontario & Quebec: A tale of two Christmases
Moving to Ontario and Quebec, it's a bit more of a mixed bag. The Weather Network reports that Ottawa and Montreal historically have solid odds of snow, with historical odds sitting at 75% and 77%, respectively.
But for Toronto, it's more of a coin flip at 50%. The Weather Network notes that Toronto's unpredictable weather often leaves it teetering between a magical snowy morning and a disappointingly green (or brown) one.
Last year's warm pattern, driven by El Niño, led to a green Christmas in much of Central Canada. Thankfully, The Weather Network forecasts that this year's neutral Pacific Ocean pattern — leaning slightly toward La Niña — improves the odds of snow sticking around in this region.
Atlantic Canada: Snow or slush?
Over in the Maritimes, it's a frosty toss-up. According to The Weather Network, Halifax has a 58% chance of snow on Christmas morning, while St. John's edges slightly higher at 63%. These odds aren't bad, but as The Weather Network notes, the region's volatile weather patterns make it harder to predict. Depending on how storm systems move in the weeks ahead, Atlantic Canadians might see snow, slush or rain on December 25.
While exact storm tracks remain uncertain, The Weather Network promises an updated holiday snow report later this week. Until then, Canadians from coast to coast can cross their fingers for the snowy Christmas morning of their dreams.
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