Canada launches first-ever attempt to count visa ‘overstays’

Canada has begun its first-ever population count to determine the number of people who are in the country without legal status after having overstayed their visas and losing their right to remain in the country.

The federal government conceded that there is no reliable estimate because getting to a specific number is both complex and a priority. 

Estimates of the number of people who have no legal status in the country have varied between 20,000 and 500,000, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, and two million people cited by Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier this year. 

The issue promises to be a political hot potato as the Conservatives last week called for a better system to track the departure of temporary visa holders. 

The government is aware that the number of "unauthorized" immigrants in the U.S.,which in 2023 reached an all-time high of 14 million people, has been a polarizing issue in American politics for years. 

 New Canadian Media requested comment from IRCC and  Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Statistics Canada to confirm this unprecedented demographic exercise.

Statistics Canada, which has set up a special unit in its demographics section to calculate an estimate, has sought the assistance of academics including  Alain Gagnon, a professor in the Universite de Montreal's demography department. Gagnon did not respond to NCM’s request for comment.

In the words of one immigration official, this population count is not straightforward, “given this population generally tries to stay undetected.”

[caption id="attachment_43359" align="alignright" width="296"] Julien Berard-Chagnon[/caption]

StatCan demographer Julien Berard-Chagnon, said his agency wants to avoid the sort of dramatic “correction” it had to do two months ago after it was revealed that a large number of temporary residents who had lost status after their visas or permits expired, had in fact renewed their visas.

The agency added more than 200,000 people to Canada’s population count on Sept. 23. 

"We are in a period of historical demographic changes," Berard-Chagnon said. Inter-provincial migration, historically low fertility rates and high immigration levels since the COVID-19 pandemic are driving factors of these changes. 

Data gaps

A March 2026 report by Canada’s auditor general cited another gap in immigration tracking. 

Of 549,000 individuals whose study permits expired in 2024, approximately 39,500 had no legal immigration status and should have left Canada. But CBSA could only confirm the departure of 16,000, leaving about 23,500 former international students unaccounted for. ul not be verified.

An April 2026 CBSA briefing following the AG’s report acknowledged limitations in its entry-exit tracking system. 

While approximately 91 per cent of traveller records are automatically matched, the remaining records require manual reconciliation, which creates a substantial backlog.The agency warned that this could result in travellers being incorrectly identified as having overstayed their visas or permits.

Spokespeople for both CBSA and IRCC confirmed that calculating an accurate number of those without legal status in Canada is crucial to restoring the integrity of the country’s immigration system. 

As part of tighter enforcement, both agencies pointed to continuous monthly updates of their immigration removal statistics which are part of the government’s plan to inform Canadians about rapidly ramping up deportations.

[caption id="attachment_43357" align="aligncenter" width="1146"] A Canada Border Services Agency tracker informs Canadians of the number of enforced removals (deportations) on a monthly basis. Photo: Screenshot from CBSA website[/caption]

NCM has previously reported what critics have described as the border agency's high-handed methods to surveil and identify international students who may be in the country illegally. 

Sudden immigration reversal

The about-turn in immigration policy between the Liberal Trudeau and Carney governments has resulted in the speculation that a large number of undocumented non-permanent residents still remain in Canada.These include three broad categories: Those who have overstayed the duration of their work or study permits; illegal border crossers; and those whose refugee claims have been denied and are candidates for deportation. 

The new population count will rely largely on integrating the CBSA's entry and exit database with the IRCC's visa-issuing system, according to the StatCan demographer. 

CBSA has established an internal triage system to target enforcement.

"The CBSA is mandated to remove as soon as possible all foreign nationals who are inadmissible to Canada and subject to an enforceable removal order,” the agency’s spokesperson told NCM. 

“Cases involving security, organized crime, human rights violations, and criminality are the highest priority for the safety and security of Canada and its citizens. 

“Failed refugee claimants are the next priority and all other immigration violations are considered thereafter.

“It is important to note that even though the latter group is a lower priority, it is necessary to action these removals due to their impact on the integrity of Canada’s immigration system."

Copyright 2026, New Canadian Media. All rights reserved.

George Abraham and Mubin S. Khan, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, New Canadian Media.