Here's some good news! COVID-19 in Canada still poses a risk to Canadians but it's on the way to being contained. With how the epidemic is headed now, the country is on track to have the curve flattened by the fall.

Public health officials have released new data and modelling on June 4 about the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.

While the situation is still serious, there are some positives.

The reproduction rate, the average number of people that each infected person passes the virus on to, has been below one for almost two weeks now.

Dr. Theresa Tam said during the data briefing that the rate needs to consistently stay below one for more than three weeks.

That would help make sure that public health measures are controlling the epidemic.

With this reproduction rate, Canada is on track to have just 1% to 10% of the population infected which would flatten the curve by fall.

However, a resurgence could still happen.

Dr. Howard Njoo, the deputy chief public health officer, noted that he's not trying to scare Canadians but it's a possibility.

"At the end of the day, it all depends on what Canadians do across the country," he said.

He noted that the resurgence could happen in the fall because of the challenges that come with summer and people getting out of their homes.

Dr. Tam also said that a spike could happen at any time.

To not have that spike in cases, lifting population-based measures like closures and stay-at-home requirements has to go hand in hand with strengthening other measures.

That would include physical distancing, detecting and isolating cases, as well as tracing and quarantining contacts.

Prime Minister Trudeau addressed the new modelling during his press conference.

"The data shows that we are continuing to make progress in the fight against this virus," he said.

Contact tracing is being done successfully and the number of new cases is low in many communities across the country.

"That's an encouraging sign that the virus is slowing and in some places, even stopping," Trudeau said.

Despite the positives, the prime minister noted that Canada is not out of the woods just yet.

The new modelling is predicting 97,990 to 107,454 COVID-19 cases and 7,700 to 9,400 deaths by June 15.

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