Analysis: Critics question “transparency” around federal immigration numbers

Seasoned watchers of Canada’s immigration scene are calling on the Carney government to be “more open and transparent” on its immigrant intake numbers following the target levels announced as part of last week’s federal budget. 

Their critique is two-fold: First, that the budget is misleading because it does not clearly distinguish between regular permanent resident admissions and those transitioning from temporary status within Canada; and, second, that the budget document adds several categories of permanent residents whose numbers fall outside the 380,000 annual limit outlined in the budget itself.

The immigration levels announced Nov.5 are largely unchanged from the 2025 plan. Ottawa has maintained its annual target of 380,000 permanent resident admissions and 370,000 new temporary resident arrivals for 2027 and 2028, and extended them through 2029. 

Leslie Seidle, a policy expert affiliated with the Institute for Research in Public Policy (IRPP), said: “When is an annual level no longer an accurate benchmark?” and said the numbers provided in the budget document lacked transparency.

The numbers game

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) confirmed  its plans to admit approximately 46,000 “protected persons” (refugees) and 20,000 skilled temporary workers in 2026 under two one-time initiatives announced in last year's budget. 

These admissions are separate from the regular annual target of 380,000 published in the budget, which potentially brings the total number to 446,000 permanent residents accepted this year.

The new budget introduces a separate measure to grant permanent residence next year to up to 200,000 people who are already in Canada, which is also outside the government’s annual target. This number includes up to 100,000 workers selected in collaboration with provinces and territories, as well as a cohort of people with pending applications under Canada’s Hong Kong and Ukraine pathways or on humanitarian and compassionate grounds. 

IRCC said that these figures are maximums — not guaranteed admissions — and the workers’ stream depends on provinces and territories opting in.

The two earlier initiatives also continue through 2027. Based on IRCC's planned admissions for 2026, up to 69,000 protected persons and 13,000 skilled workers could remain eligible for admission under those measures next year. 

If all of the remaining places are filled, including the new 200,000-person measure and the regular annual target, the total permanent resident admissions in 2027 could reach 662,000.

Back doors and side doors

Andrew Griffith, a long-time immigration expert and himself a former senior official in the immigration department in Ottawa, cautioned the Carney government against “being too cute,” while a leading demographer, Howard Ramos, a professor at Western University in London, Ont., anticipated a back door “to regularize as many overstayers as possible.”

New Canadian Media reported that the government has simultaneously embarked on its first-ever exercise to count the number of people in Canada whose visas or permits have expired. 

The government has also confirmed that 58 per cent of those who gained permanent residence between January and August 2026 were already living in Canada on temporary visas. That 58 per cent reflects the proportion of new permanent residents who previously held temporary status, rather than a separate category of admissions. IRCC clarified that this category is within the 380,000 PR target.

Griffith said “temporary should mean temporary.” He said the confusion between temporary and permanent residence will encourage more people with expired visas to stay in the country in the hope of gaining immigrant status. 

“PM (Mark) Carney is quietly increasing employer power exponentially,” the Migrants Rights Network said in a Nov. 10 news release. 

Griffith said this may be a replay of the 2022-2024 immigration fiasco when a chorus of stakeholders swayed immigration numbers without any contrary voices. 

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George Abraham and Mubin S.Khan, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, New Canadian Media.