A New Model Shows There Could Be 6,500 New COVID-19 Cases A Day In Ontario By Christmas

Ontario's top health experts say that the province's COVID-19 numbers are only going to rise this winter. 

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table's newest modelling predicts that Ontario could see 3,000-6,500 daily cases by mid-December, depending on the virus's rate of growth.

The 6,500-case estimate assumes a 5% growth rate, which would push Ontario's case numbers higher than those in places like France and England, both of which are in lockdown right now.

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6,500 The number of daily cases Ontario could hit by mid-December

However Adalsteinn Brown, the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, told reporters at a press conference on November 12 that a 5% growth rate was — at this point — "a slightly optimistic scenario."

That means it could get even higher than 6,500 a day.

The modelling predicts that the province's ICUs will exceed their 150-bed threshold in just two weeks.

At that point, the province will have to cancel their planned surgeries.

There was some positive news from the press conference.

Brown told reporters that the province's restrictions on indoor dining had had some positive effect on stopping the spread of the virus.

But he said that if Ontario wanted to stop cases from rising, greater restrictions should be enforced in provincial hot spots.

This week is on track to be Ontario's worst as the province recorded an all-time high of 1,426 new infections on November 11.