Salary increases are slowing down in Canada for 2026 but here's who still gets a raise

With the average Canadian salary under pressure and inflation still hitting people's wallets, it looks like 2026 might bring slimmer paycheques for a lot of workers.

A new report shows salary increases are slowing down across Canada — and depending on where you live or what job field you're in, your chances of getting a raise next year could be lower than you think.

According to a fresh report from Canadian HR consultancy Normandin Beaudry, the average salary increase budget for 2026 is expected to hit 3.1% — a small dip from 3.2% in 2025. While that might not sound dramatic, it's part of a broader trend of employers keeping salaries in Canada in check amid economic uncertainty, trade tensions and a softer labour market.

Plus, that number only includes employers who plan to give raises at all. When you factor in companies planning to freeze salaries, the national average drops to 3.0%.

The 2026 salary forecast is based on a survey of more than 1,800 organizations across the country. The data focuses on non-unionized employees and includes everything from private and public companies to government bodies and not-for-profits.

Normandin Beaudry's specialists say the results reflect a business landscape where employers are adjusting their pay strategies to prepare for a potential slowdown while still trying to keep key talent on board.

If you're wondering whether you'll see any extra cash in your paycheque next year, your odds might depend on your industry — or your postal code.

Which industries are seeing the biggest pay bumps?

Some Canadian job fields are still feeling generous. Software companies are expected to see the biggest average increase in 2026 at 6.5%. IT services, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals are also projecting strong gains, all clocking in around 4 to 4.4%.

Other fields like non-durable goods manufacturing, construction and finance are looking at above-average increases of 3.5 to 3.8%.

At the other end of the spectrum, workers in education are projected to receive the smallest salary increases next year, averaging just 2.5%, including freezes. Public administration and energy, mining and metals aren't far behind at 2.8%, followed by health care and community services and real estate, rental and leasing at 2.9%.

These modest increases reflect continued cost pressures and tighter public budgets in sectors that often rely on government funding or operate with narrow margins.

The likelihood of getting any raise at all also depends on your industry. Some sectors are significantly more prone to salary freezes in 2026. Health care and community services top that list, with 16.7% of employers planning to freeze pay entirely. Energy, mining and metals follow at 12.8%, with education close behind at 10.7%.

On the flip side, certain tech-focused industries — including software, IT and telecom — as well as certain supply chain sectors — like pharma, non-durable goods manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing — reported 0% salary freezes, making them some of the safest bets for a raise next year.

Where in Canada are raises most likely in 2026?

Geography matters too. Quebec leads the pack, with a projected total salary increase budget of 3.7%, excluding freezes — higher than any other province or territory. Ontario is close behind, with a projected 3.4% increase, while Alberta, B.C. and Nova Scotia follow closely at 3.3%.

But again, that's just for companies planning to offer raises — of which some provinces have more than others. When you look at the rates of salary freezes in each province, the picture gets more complicated. Alberta and B.C., for example, both have solid projected raise budgets, but also relatively high freeze rates at 9.3% and 8.6% — meaning a noticeable chunk of workers there might not see any increase at all.

Meanwhile, Ontario and Quebec not only lead the pack on projected raises but also have much lower freeze rates at 4.0% and just 1.1% respectively, making raises in those provinces more widely available.

At the other end of the spectrum, workers in the Northwest Territories and Yukon might not see much change at all, with projected increases of just 2.8% and 2.9% respectively. Nunavut is right there with them at 3.0%.

Ad hoc increases are sticking around

Interestingly, 42% of organizations are planning for extra salary increase budgets on top of standard cost-of-living adjustments — the same percentage as this year. These additional budgets are meant to reward top performers, adjust for market rates and help keep people from jumping ship.

So while base budgets may be down a touch, there are still some ways for standout employees to see bigger gains.

Still, the overall message is clear: raises in 2026 will be modest for most Canadians.

"Given the ongoing economic climate and persistent trade uncertainties, results indicate that organizations are continuing to scale back their salary increase budgets for 2026," Normandin Beaudry concludes.

2026 salary increases by province

All-in, here's how provinces and territories stack up for projected 2026 salary increases — including freezes, cost-of-living adjustments and ad-hoc raises:

1. Quebec — 3.6%
2. Ontario — 3.3%
3. Nova Scotia — 3.1%
4. Alberta — 3.0%
5. B.C. — 3.0%
6. New Brunswick — 3.0%
7. Manitoba — 2.9%
8. P.E.I. — 2.8%
9. Saskatchewan — 2.8%
10. Newfoundland and Labrador — 2.6%
11. Yukon — 2.6%
12. Northwest Territories — 2.5%
13. Nunavut — 2.0%

Whether you're thinking about switching jobs or just hoping your next review includes a bit more cash, it's worth knowing where you stand — and what to expect — as 2026 gets closer.

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