Incumbents have almost unbeatable head start in GTA elections

A seat on a municipal council is a stronger predictor of success for immigrant candidates than how much money they raise for their election campaigns, according to an analysis by New Canadian Media and interviews with academics who study electoral dynamics.

With Ontario voters heading to the polls on Oct. 26, NCM reviewed the audited 2022 financial statements of 14 candidates in Toronto, Mississauga and Brampton who have publicly identified as immigrants, the children of immigrants or members of a visible minority. Thirteen won.

NCM counted only candidates who identified themselves as immigrants in an interview, on social media or in an official biography.

Candidates who described themselves as immigrants or the children of immigrants, raised as much and often far more than their rivals in three of the most immigrant-heavy cities in Canada during the 2022 municipal elections. The ones who were already in office had an advantage over new candidates.

More than half of Mississauga's residents (53.2 per cent) and Brampton's (52.9 per cent) were born outside Canada, according to the 2021 census. In Toronto, that number was 46.6 per cent.

Money and office travelled together

Six of the 14 candidates were sitting members, and all six won. Bonnie Crombie raised $505,675 for the Mississauga mayoral race, more than 20 times her nearest rival. In Mississauga's Ward 7, Dipika Damerla raised $40,870, about three times the amount raised by the next closest candidate.

[caption id="attachment_43318" align="alignleft" width="375"] Dipika Damerla. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]

Toronto's Josh Matlow raised $90,668 compared to the $3,425 raised by his closest challenger. In Brampton, Martin Medeiros raised $62,812 against $5,750; and Pat Fortini and Rowena Santos also raised more campaign funds by wide margins. (Matlow is Canadian-born, and his Jewish identity is the only self-identification in our sample.)

The pattern held beyond our sample. In Mississauga, eight of the nine sitting members who ran for office, including the mayor, won.Ron Starr lost Ward 6 to Joe Horneck, 25 per cent to 60 per cent. In Brampton, seven of eight won; regional councillor Gurpreet Dhillon lost Wards 9 and 10 to Gurpartap Singh Toor. In Toronto, Mayor John Tory and 16 sitting councillors won, and Mark Grimes lost Ward 3 to Amber Morley.

[caption id="attachment_43322" align="alignright" width="389"] Rowena Santos. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]

Without an incumbent, money still mattered. In Toronto, Ausma Malik raised $105,944 to win Ward 10, about double that of the next candidate. Alejandra Bravo raised $102,681 in Ward 9 and Chris Moise raised $91,695 in Ward 13. Dianne Saxe won Ward 11 by 123 votes and raised $85,814 compared to the $61,759 raised by her closest rival, Norm Di Pasquale.

Across Toronto and Mississauga, the candidates who were the top fundraisers won 30 of 38 seats.

Where the money lost

In Mississauga Ward 9, Nokha Dakroub raised $37,985, the most in an 11-candidate field — more than twice what the winner, Martin Reid, raised. Still she finished second, 241 votes behind Reid. Alvin Tedjo won Mississauga's Ward 2 but raised less money than Silvia Gualtieri. Lily Cheng won Toronto's Ward 18, but didn’t raise as much for her campaign as Markus O'Brien Fehr.

[caption id="attachment_43321" align="alignleft" width="373"] Martin Medeiros. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]

Damerla, who won Ward 7 with 55 per cent of the vote, is now running for mayor and proposes term limits for the mayor and councillors.

"It's time for fresh ideas and letting somebody else come in," she told NCM. She said a three-term ceiling could open the door to new candidates, though a change like that would have to fit Ontario's legislative framework.

What the experts say

Erin Tolley, a Carleton University professor who studies diversity in Canadian politics, said incumbency is the biggest edge in municipal politics.

"Incumbency is by far the greatest advantage in municipal politics — there's no bigger advantage," she said. Name recognition, a track record on city council and relationships with voters is clearly valuable.

A 2024 study by the Association of Municipalities of Ontario reached a similar conclusion. Based on interviews and surveys with candidates and people considering municipal office, researchers found that many candidates had their first electoral success after an incumbent stepped down.

Some candidates also reported difficulty raising money to compete against sitting councillors. They said potential donors were reluctant to support a challenger because their contributions would become public, and they worried that if the incumbent won, the councillor might be less willing to help them in the future.

Randy Besco, a University of Toronto Mississauga political scientist, co-authored a 2022 study that found visible minorities donate less money on average to federal party candidates; South Asian donors were an exception.

Besco said the results didn't surprise him. "There are lots of very successful immigrants. It doesn't surprise me that some of them are very proficient fundraisers."

He said he has not tested whether the donor findings hold for municipal elections.

Besco cautioned against reading the incumbent's fundraising success as proof of an incumbency effect. Incumbents find it easier to raise money, he said, but "it's possible that it's kind of a selection effect." Candidates who can raise money are the ones who win. He said he doesn’t know which factor is greater.

Besco said immigrant candidates usually run for municipal council in the community where they live, and that wards with many immigrants are easier places for them to run because they might have community networks.

Sukhman Sangha, a lawyer running for an open regional council seat in Brampton's Wards 9 and 10, said money is not the first thing he would tell a new candidate to focus on.

Sangha said he was born in the riding and is the son of Punjabi immigrants. Nine other candidates are running for seats and only one other lives in the riding.

“The biggest obstacle for a first-time candidate in Peel is not knowing how to run a campaign,” Sangha said. He recommends that new candidates first work on someone else's campaign to gain experience in the municipal election system.

Sangha said his previous work as a senior advisor to Ontario's Minister of Transportation taught him how to navigate government. Whether he raised more than his rivals will not be public until the filing deadline in March.

Copyright 2026, New Canadian Media. All rights reserved.

Shilpashree Jagannathan, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, New Canadian Media.