Canada's election polls are tightening — This website helps you maximize your vote in 2025

How does it work?

338Canada is a website that tracks election polls and uses a detailed model to predict federal election results across Canada. It was created by Philippe J. Fournier, a physics professor and political columnist, and it pulls data from opinion polls, demographics and past election results to make its projections.

The site is independently owned, and it's got a pretty solid track record — it's gotten the winner right in about 89% of the 2,039 ridings it has covered across 18 Canadian elections since its creation in 2017.

What is strategic voting?

Canada uses a first-past-the-post voting system, which means the candidate with the most votes wins — even if they would actually be the last choice for the majority of voters. With up to six major parties on the ballot, things can get messy fast.

Four of those parties — the Liberals, NDP, Bloc Québécois and Greens — lean more toward the left, while only two — the Conservatives and PPC — are right-leaning. That can often lead to a split vote, especially on the left.

Strategic voting is basically a DIY version of a ranked ballot — you back the candidate who has the best shot at beating the party you really don't want to win.

For example, if you're a left-leaning voter and you're worried about a Conservative victory, you might end up backing the Liberal or NDP candidate with the best odds — even if your first choice might be a Green candidate.

On the flip side, if you're more right-leaning and want to stop another Liberal government, you might throw your support behind the Conservative candidate in your riding if they're polling higher than your top-choice PPC candidate.

Because the 2025 federal election is so tight, strategic voting could actually make a real difference — and knowing where your riding leans can help you plan your vote.

How to vote strategically

Using the 338Canada website is super simple. Just type your riding name into the search bar — and make sure you pick the one that says "(federal)" beside it so you don't get mixed up with provincial electoral districts.

If you don't know your riding, you can find it by plugging your postal code into Elections Canada's Voter Information Service. Don't forget, the federal ridings have been redistributed since the last election and yours might have changed!

Once you're on your riding's page, you'll see the projected vote share for each party and the odds of each candidate winning, as well as your riding's recent electoral history.

If your preferred party is already leading among the options on your side of the political spectrum, then great! That makes your choice easy. But if another party has better odds of beating a candidate you really don't want to see win, you may consider switching your vote to back that party instead.

Take, for example, the B.C. riding of South Surrey—White Rock. According to 338Canada, incumbent Conservative MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay is leading with 49% of the projected vote, while the Liberal candidate is close behind at 46% and the NDP trails at 5%. If those NDP voters all backed the Liberal candidate instead, the party would actually surpass the Conservatives. This is a great example of a riding where an NDP supporter voting strategically would want to flip their vote to Liberal.

On the other hand, if the party you're trying to keep out of Ottawa isn't a top contender in your riding at all, strategic voting may not be necessary. For example, if you're a right-leaning voter in Red Deer — where 338Canada projects a "safe" 67% Conservative lead — you could comfortably vote PPC without worrying about the Liberals coming up the middle.