Virus Variants Have Completely Changed Canada's Long-Range Daily Case Forecast

There's a new graph and it shows a huge potential resurgence.
Canada COVID-19 Update Shows Virus Variants Changed Forecasting
Senior Creator

There's been another Canada COVID-19 update from Dr. Theresa Tam, and virus variants have completely changed Canada's long-term forecast.

The first forecast included in the Public Health Agency of Canada's new modelling data, released on February 19, doesn't include variants at all.

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[rebelmouse-image 26008817 photo_credit="Courtesy of Public Health Agency of Canada" expand=1 original_size="799x396"] Courtesy of Public Health Agency of Canada

In this forecast, if we maintain the current number of people we come into contact with each day, case counts should come under control.

However, the variants change that. 

"The parameters of this model are becoming less useful due to the emergence of variants of concern that have an enhanced ability to infect and spread faster among the population," Tam said.

[rebelmouse-image 26008818 photo_credit="Courtesy of Public Health Agency of Canada" expand=1 original_size="799x383"] Courtesy of Public Health Agency of Canada

There is now a new forecast that accounts for the virus variants.

Even if the country maintains current public health measures, the daily reported cases will still rise but just at a slower pace than if restrictions are eased.

"These variants have been smouldering in the background and now threaten to flare up," Tam said.

She also warned against easing restrictions and that strong public health measures should be maintained or immediately implemented to get ahead of, or prevent, the spread of variants.

Lisa Belmonte
Senior Creator
Lisa Belmonte is a Senior Creator for Narcity Media focused on jobs and careers and is based in Ontario.