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Ontario's New Models Show That We Could Hit 5,000 New COVID-19 Cases A Day By January

And the numbers could be even worse if restrictions are eased, experts say.
Ontario's COVID-19 Numbers Could Hit 5,000 A Day By January According To Recent Models

New data modelling from the Ontario government says that the province could see around 5,000 cases a day by mid-January if Ontario's COVID-19 numbers don't start to improve soon.

In a press conference and presentation on Thursday, Ontario officials also announced that cases are very likely to go up if restrictions in the province were eased.

The data was presented by Ontario's Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Williams and Adalsteinn Brown, the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.

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5,000 Potential new cases a day in Ontario by mid-January, according to new models

Williams and Brown presented Ontario with a variety of options regarding case counts, from the best- to worst-case scenarios.

If cases grow at Ontario's first-wave rates (9%), for instance, the province could see 15,000 cases a day by mid-January.

But Ontario has been wavering between a 0% and 3% growth rate recently, Brown said, meaning we're more likely to see between around 2,000 and 5,000 cases a day by mid-January.

And he said that both case growth and ICU occupancy were likely to go up if the province eases the current restrictions.

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table says the fourth wave "has flattened due to continued public health measures and vaccination but cases in children are increasing" in a COVID-19 projection update on Tuesday.

According to the report's findings, Ontario's COVID-19 test positivity is at a seven-day average of 2.7 percent and vaccination coverage is slowly increasing.

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