According to a recent report from Royal LePage, the Ottawa real estate market is expected to remain active thanks to a drop in interest rates and new lending rules encouraging more buyers to jump in.
John Rogan, broker of record at Royal LePage Performance Realty, says Ottawa's housing market is on track for an upswing this year as more buyers look to take advantage of lower interest rates, although political uncertainty could mean a more subdued market later in the year.
"Ottawa should see a robust spring market that kicks off earlier than normal," Rogan said. "Depending on the timing of the next federal election and the possibility that it could be triggered before October, a softer fall market could be in store. Ottawa buyers and sellers tend to have a stronger reaction when there is a potential changeover in government, seeing as the transition is happening in their backyard."
Royal LePage forecasts that home prices in Ottawa will rise by 4% this year, with the aggregate price of a home climbing to $803,712 by the end of 2025. While this might seem like a lot, it's actually still below the national aggregate, which is forecasted to rise 6% to an eye-watering $856,692.
The median price of a single-family detached home in Ottawa is forecasted to hit $935,340 — a 5% year-over-year increase — while condos are expected to rise by a more modest 3%, reaching $407,365.
So, what does that mean for your dreams of homeownership? Let's crunch the numbers.
As a general rule, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recommends keeping your major housing costs — mortgage payments, property taxes, heating costs and condo fees — to no more than 32% of your before-tax income. We've made some calculations based on current mortgage conditions in Canada, including the Bank of Canada's current five-year conventional interest rate of 6.45%, to figure out what household income you need to afford an average home in Ottawa.
For a single-family detached house at $935,340:
- Down payment: At the minimum, you'll need 5% on the first $500,000 and 10% on the rest. That's $68,534 upfront.
- CMHC insurance: With a down payment of less than 20%, you'll need mortgage insurance, calculated at 4% of the remaining loan amount. This comes to $34,672.24.
- Total mortgage amount: The home price minus your down payment, plus CMHC insurance, comes out to $901,478.24.
- Monthly mortgage payment: With a 6.45% interest rate over 25 years, you're looking at $6,011.02 per month.
- Other costs: You'll also need to factor in approximately $11,328.33 a year for property tax and roughly $2,662.68 per year in heating costs.
- Total annual housing expenses: Adding it all up, you'll spend about $86,123.25 per year on housing in this scenario.
- Gross income required: To keep these costs within 32% of your income, you'll need a household income of around $269,135.
For a condo priced at $407,365:
- Down payment: A 5% minimum down payment comes to $20,368.25.
- CMHC insurance: With the remaining loan amount insured at 4%, this adds $15,479.87.
- Total mortgage amount: The condo price minus the down payment, plus CMHC insurance, equals $402,476.62.
- Monthly mortgage payment: At a 6.45% interest rate over 25 years, your payments would be $2,683.70 per month.
- Other costs: Property taxes will set you back around $6,699.08 annually, and we've estimated around $6,630 a year in condo fees (based on 850 sq. ft. at $0.65/sq. ft.), which often include heat.
- Total annual housing expenses: Combining these, your yearly housing costs are around $45,533.48.
- Gross income required: To meet the 32% affordability guideline, you'll need a household income of $142,292.
Keep in mind that these figures are rough and intended for general information only. If you're able to put together a larger down payment or find a better mortgage rate, you could reduce your monthly payments considerably.
If Ottawa is on your home-buying radar, now could be the time to crunch those numbers and explore your options — especially since the market isn't showing signs of slowing down soon. Whether you're after a condo downtown or a detached home in the suburbs, understanding the cost breakdown and what you can afford can help you plan your next move!
The Livmore Westboro Village offers clean, modern living spaces. Courtesy of GWL Realty Advisors
The shared spaces are ideal for solo or group fun. Courtesy of GWL Realty Advisors
You can hang out in the shared spaces or even book a space for your private event. Courtesy of GWL Realty Advisors
A modern furnished suite at Envie. 
Envie buildings have fully equiped gyms for residents to use. 
Envie residents participate in a complimentary cooking class. 
Envie residents participate in a complimentary paint and sip night. 
