These Canadian cities will be hit hardest by US tariffs and #1 isn't where you'd think

If you're worried about how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs might shake up the Canadian economy — or even the local one in your city — you're not alone.

A new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Business Data Lab (BDL) breaks down which cities in Canada could suffer the most if the U.S. follows through with its latest round of protectionist policies, and the most vulnerable spots might not be where you expect.

With less than three weeks left on Trump's 30-day pause on sweeping 25% tariffs on most exports and 10% tariffs on energy, these new trade barriers could spell serious trouble for some of the country's most trade-dependent regions.

According to the BDL report, the impact won't be evenly distributed across Canada. Some cities — especially those heavily reliant on the U.S. market — are far more vulnerable than others.

Using a "U.S. Tariff Exposure Index," which measures a city's dependence on American trade, the study ranks Canada's 41 largest cities to determine which ones are in the most danger of fallout from U.S. tariffs on Canada. The findings highlight a mix of energy hubs, auto manufacturing centres and industrial powerhouses that are likely to take the biggest hit.

At the top of the list is Saint John, New Brunswick, which has the highest exposure due to its massive crude oil exports to the U.S. The city is home to the Irving Oil Refinery, Canada's largest, which ships over 80% of its refined products south of the border. This heavy reliance on energy exports makes it particularly vulnerable to the new 10% tariff on Canadian oil and gas.

Western Canada isn't faring much better, with Calgary coming in as the second most exposed city. As the heart of Canada's energy sector, Calgary exports more goods to the U.S. than any other Canadian city — a staggering $119.4 billion worth of goods, which makes up 80.4% of the city's GDP. The report warns that energy tariffs could lead to price increases and production cuts that ripple throughout the Alberta economy.

Meanwhile, Southwestern Ontario's auto sector is another major area of concern. The report ranks Windsor, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford and Guelph as the next hardest-hit cities, largely due to their reliance on auto and parts manufacturing, which faces a steep 25% tariff under the new policy.

Windsor, in particular, is deeply intertwined with neighbouring Michigan's auto industry, housing major assembly plants for Ford and Stellantis. Any disruption to the cross-border supply chain could lead to job losses and production delays.

Hamilton also makes the top 10, ranking eighth in tariff exposure due to its massive steel industry. Known as Canada's steel capital, the city is home to major producers like ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Stelco, which export steel used in everything from auto manufacturing to construction. With the new separate 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports Trump announced on Monday also looming, the region could be at an even higher risk.

Finally, Quebec also has several cities high on the list, with Saguenay, Trois-Rivières and Drummondville all ranking among the most exposed.

Saguenay, in seventh place, is a major player in Canada's aluminum industry, supplying roughly a third of the country's total production — most of which is shipped to the U.S. for auto manufacturing and related industries. With the new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum set to take effect next month, these areas of Quebec now face an even greater threat, as the total tariff burden could reach 50% if stacked.

Here's the full top-10 list of the most vulnerable cities, according to the BDL's U.S. Tariff Exposure Index:

1. Saint John, NB
2. Calgary, AB
3. Windsor, ON
4. Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, ON
5. Brantford, ON
6. Guelph, ON
7. Saguenay, QC
8. Hamilton, ON
9. Trois-Rivières, QC
10. Lethbridge, AB

While these cities face the steepest consequences, the report also highlights that some parts of Canada are less exposed to the economic risks of U.S. tariffs. These cities have diversified their trade to rely less on the U.S., with coastal cities especially safe.

Nanaimo, Victoria, Halifax and St. John's rank among the least vulnerable due to their proximity to oceans, allowing easier trade with Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, Sudbury was ranked the safest from tariffs as it exports a lot of its nickel and copper to other international markets.

Here are the 10 least vulnerable cities, according to the study:

1. Sudbury, ON
2. Kamloops, BC
3. Nanaimo, BC
4. Winnipeg, MB
5. Regina, SK
6. Victoria, BC
7. Halifax, NS
8. Saskatoon, SK
9. St. John's, NL
10. Vancouver, BC

While these rankings help highlight which cities are most at risk, the full economic impact of these tariffs is still uncertain. The study notes that factors like how long the tariffs stay in place, whether businesses can pivot to alternative markets and how the Canadian government responds will all influence the long-term effects.

One thing is clear, though — if these tariffs stick around, they won't just hurt the hardest-hit cities, they'll have a ripple effect on workers, businesses and consumers across the country. Whether it's higher prices, job losses or production delays, Canadians in every province could feel the impact of this latest trade war in the months to come.

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