Ontario Housing Prices Are Expected To Drop In 2023 & These 5 Towns Could Get A Lot Cheaper

Ontario's housing market is projected to continue to seeing the biggest correction of all the Canadian provinces.

According to a recent report by Desjardins, housing prices in Ontario, especially in smaller towns, could plummet by up to 50 percent by the end of 2023. Whereas home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are only set to drop by around 20 percent.

Smaller communities around Toronto could see bigger drops than the GTA as during the pandemic, these places saw home prices go up a lot, but now they're expected to come back down, the report predicts.

The report also highlighted five Ontario towns where housing prices are expected to drop the most, and they are:

1. Bancroft
2. Northumberland Hills
3. Woodstock-Ingersoll
4. Grey Bruce Owen Sound
5. Muskoka & Haliburton

Durham, London, Windsor, Guelph, Peterborough, Barrie, Orillia, Kitchener, and Niagara Falls are also among the areas where prices are expected to fall by around 30-38 percent by the end of the year.

Even though prices in the GTA are also expected to drop, the decrease will be less dramatic, estimated to be around 20 percent from their peak. Other regions such as Mississauga, York Region, Ottawa, Timmins, and Thunder Bay are also predicted to see a drop of less than 25 percent.

However, the erosion of affordability has forced many Ontarians to leave the province altogether. The Atlantic provinces were a favoured destination for outmigration during the pandemic, but the report shows that Alberta has more recently become a preferred alternative.

Nevertheless, rapid population growth due to a combination of factors including international migration and the admission of non-permanent residents means that the demand for housing remains high.

The report notes that despite the drop in prices affordability is not likely to improve significantly in the next two years.

"While affordability in Canada’s most populous province is expected to improve as home prices continue to fall and borrowing costs ultimately come down, we don’t anticipate that it will return to its pre‑COVID level by the end of 2024," the authors write.

The report also mentions that other provinces, such as British Columbia and Quebec, have also seen recent price growth and may experience some correction in the future, but the correction is not expected to be as significant as in Ontario.