Canada's Budget 2025 could trigger another election this fall — Here's how it works

Canada's minority government is about to face a make-or-break moment. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table Budget 2025 in the House of Commons on Tuesday afternoon.

But it's not just Canada's finances that hang in the balance — the federal budget could determine whether Canadians head back to the polls again for the second time this year.

Mark Carney's minority Liberal government is about to face its first real confidence vote since winning 169 seats in the spring election — three seats shy of a majority. And if the budget doesn't pass, Canada could be headed for another election just months after the last one.

Here's what you need to know about how it all works and what could happen next.

What is Budget 2025, and why does it matter?

The federal budget is basically the government's plan for how it's going to spend money and fund social programs across the country over the next year (or several).

The 2025 budget is set to be tabled on November 4, likely just after 4 p.m. ET. Before its introduction, MPs, ministers, stakeholders and even the Canadian public were consulted on what should be included.

The last Canadian budget, introduced in April 2024 under Justin Trudeau, had $535 billion in total spending and a $39.8 billion deficit. Then came the Fall Economic Statement in December, projecting a $48.3 billion deficit — but that was eclipsed by then-finance minister Chrystia Freeland's bombshell resignation on the very same day.

Less than a month later, Trudeau announced his own resignation. Mark Carney became Liberal leader and prime minister, and an election was called for April 28.

Now, just over six months after that spring election, the minority Liberals are presenting their fiscal plan as opposition MPs have been pushing for more transparency around Canada's financial situation.

Why could this budget trigger an election?

Under Canada's parliamentary system, the federal budget is what's called a matter of "confidence." That means it's voted on in the House of Commons, and if it doesn't get the support of over half of the MP votes, the government is expected to resign or ask the governor general to dissolve the House and call an election.

With the Liberals holding a 169-seat minority, Carney needs support from at least three opposition MPs — or have at least six opposition members abstain from the vote — to pass the budget and avoid another election.

Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have the bulk of the remaining seats at 144, while the Bloc Québécois holds 22, the NDP has seven and the Green Party has one.

The last time a Canadian prime minister was defeated by a no-confidence vote was in 2011, when Stephen Harper's Conservative government was found to be in contempt of Parliament.

But it hasn't happened on a budget vote in nearly 50 years — not since 1979, when Joe Clark's Conservative minority government fell after tabling its first budget just under seven months into his term (remarkably similar timing to Carney's situation now).

What's expected to be in the budget?

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne has been talking up the fiscal plan in optimistic terms, calling it "an investment budget" and "a generational shift," according to CBC News.

The budget is expected to include increased defence spending, more money for affordable housing and support for workers hit by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

But the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates this year's deficit could reach $68.5 billion — significantly higher than the $48.3 billion projected in the Fall Economic Statement. And some analysts suggest it could even hit $100 billion.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised the budget will contain "austerity and investment at the same time," but opposition parties are skeptical that's possible given that the Liberal platform from the spring election included over 100 new spending commitments.

But Champagne suggested there's something in the budget for everyone, including opposition parties. "People are looking for change," he said, according to CBC. "People will see something in there for them."

But whether opposition MPs believe him remains to be seen.

Will the opposition parties support it?

So far, the outlook isn't great for Mark Carney's Liberals, as the government and opposition parties appear to be locked in a game of political chicken.

In an October 20 open letter to Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre demanded the new budget keep the deficit under $42 billion — a far cry from the PBO's estimate.

He also called on the government to reduce taxes on income, capital gains, carbon and home building, and eliminate what he calls "hidden taxes on food" related to packaging, carbon taxes and inflation — demands that Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon called "ludicrous," according to The Globe and Mail.

"Canadians have had enough of your buzzwords and broken promises," Poilievre's letter states. "Every Liberal budget ends the same way — higher prices, lower paycheques and bigger bills."

Meanwhile, Bloc Québécois finance critic Jean-Denis Garon announced 18 budget demands last month, six of which he described as non-negotiable. He told reporters the Bloc's support will be "difficult to obtain" based on where things stand, the Globe reports.

But MacKinnon says the opposition is making unreasonable demands. "What I'm seeing in Parliament worries me," he told reporters in October, per the Globe.

"What we're seeing is our opposition parties, the Bloc Québécois, who, without having even read the budget, eliminate the possibility that they will support it, and the Conservatives making just ludicrous demands."

Could the NDP help avoid an election?

The NDP might be the wild card here. Interim Leader Don Davies told the CBC's Rosemary Barton in an interview on Sunday that some or all of the party's seven MPs could abstain from the vote — meaning they wouldn't vote for or against the budget.

"Abstentions are allowed," Davies said, adding that the NDP caucus is scheduled to meet Tuesday night and Wednesday to discuss their response. He's said the party won't support an austerity budget but is looking for job-creating investments.

If at least six of the NDP's seven MPs abstain, that could be enough for the budget to pass without forcing an election.

When will the vote happen?

After the budget is tabled on Tuesday afternoon, there will be four days of debate. Based on the House of Commons sitting calendar, the next possible days for those debates would be November 5, 6, 7 and 17, since the House is off for the week of November 10-14.

That means the confidence vote could happen as soon as November 17, giving the Liberals just two weeks to convince opposing MPs not to vote down their plan.

Do Canadians even want another election?

According to a recent EKOS Politics poll, appetite for another federal election this year is very low. Canadians overwhelmingly oppose triggering another election over the budget — twice as many are against the idea than in favour of it.

Half of Canadians — including a majority of NDP voters — say they'd be less likely to support a party that brings down the government. Notably, 11% of Conservatives say they'd consider voting against their party as punishment for sending them to the polls again.

With the budget just hours away, Canadians will soon find out whether Carney's minority government can survive its first major test — or whether a Christmas election is on the horizon.

What do you think — would you want to go back to the polls this fall?

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