Canadians are watching their neighbour to the south with anticipation. The 2020 U.S. presidential election may be one of the most important ones in the country's history. However, no matter who ends up in the White House, Canada's economy may face some setbacks.
Whether the winner is former vice president Joe Biden or the incumbent president, Donald Trump, the economic policies of either candidate will have an international impact.
A report from RSM outlines how Biden's or Trump's decisions could continue to stall growth in Canada.
It's difficult to say what exactly will happen before Americans make their decision on November 3, but the close relationship between both countries means the election matters on either side of the border.
How does a Biden win impact the economy?
Joe Biden, who according to averages from FiveThirtyEight currently has a 10-point lead in national polls, might not end up changing that much about the current president's economic approach.
RSM notes that the Democratic challenger's platform includes a 'Made In America' tax credit for companies that grow employment and salaries within the U.S. This could potentially mean less expansion of those companies into Canada.
Biden has also made clear that if he is elected he will cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project, which would continue to affect Canadian oil prices and make economic recovery more difficult.
Finally, the former VP is likely to keep tariffs on Chinese imports brought in by the Trump administration, which have already negatively affected Canada's economy due to its integration with the United States through the USMCA (formerly NAFTA).
How does a Trump win impact the economy?
If Donald Trump is re-elected (an outcome that the majority of Canadians do not want to see, according to a 338Canada and Léger poll), he is likely to continue the economic policies he has put in place.
That could mean a continuing trade war with China, which has had a negative impact on Canada's economy since it is now more closely tied to the United States than ever.
Trump has also continually expressed a more protectionist 'America First' economic plan, which could continue to present difficulties north of the border.
Ultimately, though, the biggest impact from a Trump presidency would come from the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. If it is not brought under control in the United States (or Canada, for that matter), it could continue to negatively affect economic recovery in both countries.
What benefits does either candidate offer?
President Trump has expressed his desire to continue with the Keystone XL pipeline. While there are numerous environmental concerns about the project, it would benefit Canada's oil and gas industry.
While Joe Biden has offered a tax break through his proposed 'Made In America' credit, he has also promised to boost the corporate tax rate, according to the Toronto Star. If he does, then Canada could be more competitive in foreign markets.
Biden's environmental plan could also provide a boost to Canada. His proposals to build energy-efficient homes and push automotive companies into creating electric vehicles might benefit both the Ontario auto industry and Canada's forestry sector.