Nunavut MP Lori Idlout crossing the floor from the NDP to the Liberals puts the government at 170 seats, with three byelections set for April 13 poised to be the deciding factor that could give Prime Minister Mark Carney a majority government.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Mark Carney just called 3 by-elections and it could give the Liberals a (slim) majority
Two Toronto-area byelections were triggered by the resignations of former cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair — both seen as safe for the Liberals.
A third in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne is required after the Liberals won the seat in the election last year by a single vote, but the Supreme Court annulled the result last month.
NDP Leader Don Davies listens as MP for Nunavut Lori Idlout speaks with media in Ottawa on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026. Idlout has crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party.Adrian Wyld | The Canadian Press
The Liberals would have a 172-seat majority even if they only win two of the three contests, but would still likely rely on opposition support to pass legislation.
Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, a Quebec Liberal, only votes in the event of a tie, and traditionally, the speaker opts to maintain the status quo as an impartial figure.
That means historically, the speaker will not vote to pass new legislation but would side with the government on confidence votes.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 11, 2026.