The Ontario election campaign has officially kicked off as of May 4 and it could have many repercussions for Canadians inside and outside of the province.
After all, Ontario is the largest province by population and is the nation's economic and political hub, so things that happen there are bound to affect people across the rest of country.
To get a better understanding of the situation and how that could affect everybody else, Narcity spoke with Dr. Peter Graefe, an Associate Professor of Canadian Politics at McMaster University.
He outlined how each potential outcome of the election could colour different futures for the whole country, as well as how provincial voters can (and can't) indicate national attitudes.
Changing the media landscape
Given that Canada's media is centred in Toronto, viewers across the country can find that their perceptions of national news and politics can be affected by what's happening in Ontario, according to Dr. Graefe.
"What happens [in Ontario] colours how [Canadians] interpret what is happening in the rest of the country," said the professor.
Provincial-federal relations
How such a big province interacts with the federal government does a whole lot for the feds' relationship with the provinces on the whole.
"If Justin Trudeau wishes to move forward with many of his policies, which are in areas of provincial jurisdiction, he needs the provinces to cooperate," said Dr. Graefe.
"The pressure of the looming Ontario election helps explain why Trudeau got his final childcare deal: Ford wanted to be able to claim credit for it in the election, and did not want to be seen as blocking better access to childcare."
So, the PM being on good terms with a province as big as Ontario could mean that more things are passed on a federal level.
Testing the pandemic boost
Across the country, premiers and politicians have generally experienced a jump in public support for leading us through the pandemic, Dr. Graefe explained.
How the Ontario election plays out could be the same, or be another exception like Nova Scotia.
"The parties and leaders that led us through the pandemic have received a boost in public confidence that allows them to be re-elected," he said.
The professor also pointed out that some voters and politicians act as if the pandemic is essentially over, so "the point is to choose the way forward rather than litigating things like the excessive deaths in long term care homes."
So, how this election goes will indicate if this pandemic boost still has force in Canada.
If the Progressive-Conservatives win
A win from the incumbent Doug Ford, which polls are suggesting could be the case, could "complicate the implementation of the Liberal-NDP deal," said Dr. Graefe.
Ford's campaign is currently focusing on spending money, however, something that might be in opposition to the federal Conservative party.
"[This] complicates things for the federal Conservatives if they want to be the anti-inflation party or the small state party."
If the Ontario Liberals win
Dr. Graefe believes that a win by Steven Del Duca "would likely strengthen Trudeau’s hand in dealing with the provinces, as he would have a supportive government in the largest province."
For things like carbon pricing and climate change policies, the PM would also likely have a friend in Del Duca. But, it could also mean Del Duca will stand up more for Ontario when it comes to carbon credits.
Dr. Graefe thinks that he "would like more credit for the province’s past successes in emissions reduction."
If the NDP win
If Andrea Horwath's NDP find themselves the victor, it could provide an interesting new dynamic in the provinces.
"Most of the other Premiers are conservative," said the professor.
But, while on a surface level she might seem ideologically opposed to more conservative premiers, she does have some overlap in her election plan.
"Her ideas for expanding mental health care echo some of those we have seen in provincial conservative parties," continued Dr. Graefe, "and might spark more provincial innovation in this field."
Ontario is NOT a bellwether for the rest of Canada
While it might seem that Canada's biggest province could indicate national attitudes, that's not exactly the case.
"Ontario voters do hold partisan identities that often apply both federally and provincially," explained Dr. Graefe. "But, these are often weak and they seem to make distinct judgements at the federal and provincial levels."
So, Ontario voters seem to care about different things depending on the governing body they're dealing with.
"The same Ontario voters who gave Stephen Harper his federal majority in 2011 gave Kathleen Wynne a provincial majority in 2014."
So, hopefully, you're now on the edge of your seat, wondering what the heck is going to happen and what that could mean for wherever you might be.
Ontarians will head to the polls on June 2, 2022.
