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An Ontario COVID-19 Expert Says Our Lockdown Measures Are Officially Working

"In a month, we could see our cases drop by 32%," says Ryan Imgrund.
An Ontario COVID-19 Expert Says Our Lockdown Measures Are Officially Working

If you're aching to hear some good news, one expert finally some to share. 

According to Ryan Imgrund, a biostatistician and COVID-19 analyst, Ontario's lockdown measures are officially working.

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"For the first time since the summer, weekly case counts are down in every single age group," Imgrund told Narcity in a direct message.

"31 of Ontario’s 34 public health units have a reproductive rate under one, meaning one primary infection is leading to less than one secondary infection," Imgrund continued.

"This represents not only a plateau but a decline in case numbers," he says.

These numbers reflect the lockdown put in place on Boxing Day. Progress should also be reflected in the stay-at-home order and renewed state of emergency that came into effect last week.

At this rate, the province could see significant improvement a month from now in terms of new infection counts, says Imgrund.

"In a month, we could see our daily case count drop 32%," said Imgrund, which could mean down to 1,700 cases per day.

In order to lift lockdown measures, however, Dr. David Williams estimates that the province will need to get down to 1,000 cases per day or lower, like in late October.

However, Dr. Williams is confident that this goal is achievable if Ontarians continue to abide by the rules in place.

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