This province is most eager to leave Canada if Carney wins — and it's not Alberta or Quebec

With the 2025 federal election just weeks away and national unity tensions heating up, a new poll suggests a surprising shift in separatist sentiment in Canada — and it might catch some people off guard.

As voters brace for what could be a dramatic finish on April 28, with Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre vying for power in a tight race, one Prairie province is starting to think about sovereignty — but not Canadian sovereignty.

According to a new Angus Reid Institute survey, Saskatchewan — not Quebec or Alberta — is the province most eager to bolt if the Liberals come out on top this election.

The poll asked Canadians how they'd vote in a referendum to leave Canada and form an independent country in the event that the Liberals formed the next government. A full 33% of Saskatchewan residents said they'd vote yes.

That's higher than the numbers in both Alberta and Quebec, where 30% said they'd support separation under those same circumstances.

While Alberta and Quebec have both been the more classic examples of provinces with separatist sentiment over the years — Quebec for decades, and Alberta more recently — support for separatism in Saskatchewan in the event of a Liberal win actually aligns with the province's strong Conservative presence.

Saskatchewan is the only province where every single federal seat is currently held by the Conservatives. With many blue voters expressing frustration at the idea of another Liberal government, it's not entirely unexpected that Saskatchewan would show high levels of separatist sentiment, especially with the possibility of Mark Carney heading to 24 Sussex.

In the broader national context, only 20% of Canadians overall said they'd vote to leave Canada if the Liberals win. And while these numbers are still a minority, they're not insignificant.

The Angus Reid survey was conducted between March 28 and 31, with a representative sample of 2,131 Canadian adults — a sample size that would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The spike in separatist sentiment appears tied to a deep sense of alienation some Prairie provinces are feeling recently. In both Alberta and Saskatchewan, only about a quarter of residents feel their province is respected by the rest of the country — well below the national average of 52%.

Meanwhile, only about a third in each spot agree that their province is "treated fairly" by the feds — about half of the national average of 62%.

That sense of being overlooked may be fuelling more dramatic political fantasies, especially in the face of rising American threats, ongoing trade turmoil and a tight federal race.

According to Angus Reid, two in five Conservative voters say they'd be open to leaving Canada if the Liberals form government — with just as many saying they'd consider joining the United States.

So while Alberta may be louder, and Quebec more historically separatist, Saskatchewan might just be the province to watch when the ballots are counted.

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