Canada's Spring Forecast: Good News & Bad News With Bursts Of 'Winter-Like' Conditions Expected
Here's what to expect in each province.
A man standing in the rain.
Canada had an incredibly mild winter this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the spring forecast will follow a similar pattern.
According to The Weather Network, Canada's spring forecast for 2024 will be marked by "dramatic temperature swings and bursts of winter-like conditions disrupting the path to consistent warmth."
"This forecast presents both good and bad news," says the weather agency. "The good news is that the mild winter and lack of snow will decrease worries about spring flooding. On the other hand, areas with a drier-than-normal winter may face an early start to the wildfire season."
As well, a shift from El Niño to La Niña may indicate that the upcoming spring season will lack clear characterizations.
Here's what The Weather Network is predicting for Canada this spring.
British Colombia
Over on the West Coast, things are looking like they'll be quite pleasant.
Although March will be bringing some snow, later in the season there's expected to be warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions that will dominate.
"This will give us even more days of pleasant spring weather than normal," says TWN. "However, there is a negative side to the pleasant spring weather. The below-normal winter snowpack and the above-normal spring temperatures will likely result in a shorter spring ski season."
Unfortunately, it also means a greater risk that wildfire season in the province may have an early start.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba
For Alberta, temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of spring.
"However, the temperature patterns are expected to be even more changeable than normal, with periods of colder-than-normal temperatures and a risk for a few high-impact, late-winter-like events that will interrupt the mild pattern at times," says TWN.
For neighbouring provinces Saskatchewan and Manitoba, warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected but there will also be "significant periods" of colder weather and some high-impact late-winter-like storms.
"Drought continues to be a major concern for parts of the region, and smoke from wildfires will be an increasing concern as we head towards summer," advises the agency. "However, we are cautiously optimistic that the pattern will become wetter during May, especially for the central parts of the region."
Ontario
Ontario has been experiencing spring-like temperatures in February, and those warmer-than-normal temperatures will continue on into the season.
"However, the mild spring will be moody at times with periods of colder-than-normal temperatures and a risk for significant late-winter-like weather, which will test our patience as we wait for more consistent warm weather," says TWN.
That being said, they do predict that we'll be seeing spring flowers ahead of schedule, so perhaps those who eagerly await cherry blossoms season will be treated to some early blooms.
"Unfortunately, though, a warm spring does not eliminate the risk of late-season shots of cold weather," they shared. "Therefore, we have a significant risk for a late-season frost or freeze after the start of the growing season."
Quebec
"Mild spring-like weather arrived very early this year, and we expect that warmer-than-normal temperatures will dominate the season," says TWN.
Like Ontario, the nicer than normal temps will lead to early blooms and blossoms, but there could be some variances in temperatures later.
"However, our mild spring pattern will be interrupted at times by periods of colder weather (including a risk for messy late-winter-like storms), which will test our patience before we finally see the arrival of more consistent warm weather."
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, P.E.I. and Newfoundland
Over on the East Coast, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and P.E.I. will likely see near-to-normal or just above-normal temperatures for spring.
"An active storm track is expected to continue through March and possibly into April (with the typical threat of high-impact late-winter weather) before a drier pattern develops for the second half of the season," says TWN.
Newfoundland will also see near-normal or slightly above-normal temperatures for the season.
"However, residents of this region know all too well that high-impact winter weather is a normal part of the spring season, and this year will not be an exception," they advise.
Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
And to round everything out, it looks like the territories are also in for some relatively nice weather for the next few months.
"Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected for most of the region, including the Yukon, much of the Northwest Territories, and Baffin Island," says TWN. "Meanwhile, near-normal temperatures are expected for the western parts of Nunavut. Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of the region."
All things said, it looks like a pretty good spring across Canada.
"On the whole, we expect that above-average temperatures will predominate over cold conditions for the majority of Canadians in the upcoming spring, with the exception of eastern Canada, notably Atlantic Canada, where stretches of warmth will be more closely balanced with chilly spells, leading to temperatures approaching normal levels," says TWN.
However, it looks like The Farmer's Almanac has a different take on Canada's 2024 spring forecast, which was published in late January.
"Warm weather will take its time arriving in Canada in spring 2024," they say. "Storms are expected at the beginning of the season, bringing a combination of heavy rain and snow to many areas of the country. Notably, Ontario may witness a delayed snowstorm coinciding with the Easter holiday."
If you're more into getting your weather predictions via rodent news, you might be pleased to hear that in 2024, Wiarton Willie did not see his shadow for an impressive third year in a row, which indicates that Canada is in store for an early spring.
Willie's claim was backed up by Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam, who also predicted early spring as well as Quebec's Fred Junior, the successor to Fred la Marmotte.
However, not all of the animals who can predict the weather agreed this year - over in Nova Scotia, Lucy the Lobster did indeed see her shadow, which indicates that winter will hang around for an extra six months.
Regardless of which animal or forecast you're putting your faith in, remember to stay safe this spring and be on the lookout for storms and cold shots of weather that can affect driving conditions.
This article's cover image was used for illustrative purposes only.
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