The End Of Roe v. Wade Could Lead To Abortion Bans In Up To Half The US & Here's Where

If the landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling Roe v. Wade falls in the coming weeks, roughly half of the states are prepared to heavily restrict or ban abortion shortly after the decision drops.

That's according to analysis by the abortion-rights group Guttmacher Institute, which has been following the issue at the state level for many years.

The Guttmacher Institute and many other activist groups are sounding the alarm after Politico leaked a draft version of a Supreme Court decision earlier this week. The draft opinion suggests the court is preparing to strike down the Roe v. Wade ruling that guarantees access to an abortion without excessive government interference.

Roe v. Wade has stood for nearly 50 years, but without it, states will be allowed to make their own rules around abortion — including laws to ban it and punish people who seek one.

In other words, options for getting a safe abortion will likely look dramatically different in the near future, depending on where you live.

Although the draft opinion has not been finalized yet and abortions are still legal (to varying degrees) in all 50 states, the Guttmacher Institute says at least 26 states are "certain or likely" to target it. Some even have "trigger" laws already ready to take effect as soon as Roe v. Wade falls.

"What we're seeing right now is the buildup of decades where state legislatures have been adopting restriction after restriction, and now they're moving to adopt ban after ban," Elizabeth Nash, a state policy analyst for the organization and one of the authors of the report, told The New York Times.

Protests have erupted across the U.S. since the draft opinion was leaked, although it's not official law yet. The court still has to release its final decision.

According to the Guttmacher Institute, 22 states are "certain" to ban abortion "as quickly as possible" if the ruling falls. Some had anti-abortion laws on the books before Roe, some have since passed "trigger" laws for when Roe falls and several others are prepared to ban it under nearly all circumstances or as early as within the first six weeks, as .

Those 22 states are:

1. Alabama
2. Arizona
3. Arkansas
4. Georgia
5. Idaho
6. Iowa
7. Kentucky
8. Louisiana
9. Michigan
10. Mississippi
11. Missouri
12. North Dakota
13. Ohio
14. Oklahoma
15. South Carolina
16. South Dakota
17. Tennessee
18. Texas
19. Utah
20. West Virginia
21. Wisconsin
22. Wyoming

In addition to these states, four others are "likely" to ban it based on their politics and recent actions, the Guttmacher Institute says.

Those states are:

1. Florida
2. Indiana
3. Montana
4. Nebraska

The final Supreme Court decision is expected in June.

This article's cover image was used for illustrative purposes only.