Predictions for Ontario gas prices in 2023

McTeague says that gas will be as pricey in 2023 as it was during its peak last year, if not more so, with spikes set to have far greater staying power.

"I think the higher price will be here longer and won't peak in the drop. I think it'll move up slowly between now and June, measurably, you know, 10 cents a month until we hit probably about $2 a litre, but rather than dropping back to a buck sixty by September, October, it will stay in the 1.80, 1.90 range," he said.

As for the driving force behind the incoming spike? The analyst says the blame lies partly with how energy markets were handled during the second half of 2022, citing "overarching concerns" about factors such as COVID-19, inflation, and demand destruction.

"I think the average price in 2023 is far more painful than 2022," he added, while also pointing to the federal government's commitment to raising "carbon taxes faster than the rate of inflation."

How to prepare for the increases

"The only security people have right now is predictability," McTeague said while warning people of the dangers of getting caught up in daily fluctuations.

The analyst argued that drivers often think they're "getting a deal" when their local station drops a few cents below what others in the area are offering, failing to see the slow creep of the province's upwards trend.

"They're still going up two cents a litre tomorrow, we still went up four cents a litre today," he added.

McTeague also advised residents to take a look at the country's policies surrounding electric vehicles, which he says are causing energy problems that are "entirely avoidable."

Places that will be hit hardest

Fluctuations aside, 2022 saw residents of the north of Ontario consistently paying more for gas than their neighbours to the south, with Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay often recording the highest prices in the province. (

McTeague revealed to Narcity that the notable difference in price between the north and south would continue in 2023, citing a variety of reasons.

"The north has, of course, no access to terminals or pipelines. And the only way in which to get the product to market is by truck," he said. "And so, those trucks have to go over several hundreds of miles or thousands of miles to get to the drop off the station [sic]. And that gas station will not be going through 20,000 to 30,000 litres every day. So, there tends to be a much higher cost of operating in the north."

How to address the issue

McTeague argues that the Federal government's carbon tax and climate policies are at least partly to blame for the current state of the energy market.

"We have some big decisions to make in this country about whether or not we can afford to do these things," he said before adding that unless the Canadian economy shuts down, prices will continue to grow.

However, a statement on the Government Of Canada's website contends that putting a price on carbon pollution is the best way "to reduce greenhouse gas emissions" and drive innovation.