Russia Is Hinting At A Ukraine Invasion & Here's Why 'World War III' Is Trending

Russia is hinting at moving into Ukraine, world leaders are talking tough and Google searches for "World War III" have spiked this week, so you might say things are tense in Eastern Europe.

The whole standoff revolves around Ukraine, a former Soviet state that Russia says it's not going to invade, even though it's lined up an estimated 100,000 troops along the border.

Here's what you need to know about the whole mess in a nutshell, because it could get even messier if someone doesn't back down very soon.

Russia & Ukraine go way back

Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union, aka the USSR, a socialist country that was made up of 15 different republics, the largest and most powerful being Russia. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine and the other Soviet states became their own countries, independent from Russia.

Ukraine has a big chunk of the former Soviet Union's population, and it was also a major industrial, agricultural and military producer, according to the Council of Foreign Relations. Some of Ukraine's population still feels culturally tied to Russia, although the government has been leaning more toward the West in recent years, especially as Russia has become more aggressive toward it, according to The New York Times.

The last time things got really bad between these two countries was in 2014, when Russia took over an area of Ukraine called Crimea during an armed conflict. And Russia doesn't seem like it wants to stop there. In July of 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote about his desire to absorb Ukraine in a press release.

"I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia," wrote Putin. "Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people."

Why Russia is threatening Ukraine

Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has been trying to align more closely with institutions like the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a way to forge its own national identity, protected from Russia.

Members of NATO promise to defend each other if one of them is attacked, so that kind of protection would be great for Ukraine — but it would extend NATO's presence along Russia's borders. While NATO has no current plans to admit Ukraine into the alliance, Russia is now demanding a guarantee that it never will, which U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO allies are saying Russia has no right to do.

Russia has always been vocal about its opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, and that's only gotten stronger over the years, The New York Times reports.

In the run-up to NATO's 2008 summit, where the alliance would discuss Ukraine's application for membership, Putin even warned that if Ukraine joined NATO, he would treat it as "a hostile act toward Russia." At that time, Russia's opposition was enough to deter some NATO allies from agreeing to admit Ukraine for the moment, although vague promises of potential membership in the future were made, according to The Washington Post.

If Ukraine joins NATO and then gets attacked, all other members of the treaty would come after Russia, which is exactly what Russia doesn't want happening. However, many NATO members, including the U.S. and Canada, also don't want to get sucked into a war with Russia. That's why they haven't accepted Ukraine as a member or promised to defend it from invasion — although they have offered some backing, including sanctions on Russia and a $120 million loan from Canada to Ukraine.

So now we're left with Russia lining up around 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, and Western leaders warning Putin not to go any further — although they're not ready to fully commit to defending Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia has been warning the West not to get any more involved with Ukraine.

That's likely why Google search traffic for "World War III" has surged this week, although the chances of a world war are slim, experts told the BBC.

"Russia is looking for excuses or reasons to continue and even escalate its aggression against Ukraine," Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week, according to Global News. "The bottom line is we will be there to continue supporting the people of Ukraine through multiple levels and layers of support."

Putin has said that Russia is just carrying out military exercises, but Ukraine and other Western countries are not buying it. Talks are underway to calm the whole thing down, although it's unclear if or when they'll work.

However, Ukraine sounded optimistic about resolving the situation on Tuesday.

"Don't worry, sleep well," Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Ukrainian lawmakers, according to the Associated Press. He added that right now there are "no grounds to believe" that Russia is about to invade.

"No need to have your bags packed," Reznikov said.

This article's cover image was used for illustrative purposes only.